ABIO10 PGTW 231800 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN CORRECTED/231800Z-241800ZOCT2007//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.5N 82.7E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.3N 83.7E, APPROXIMATELY 265 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING EMBEDDED IN A WELL-DEFINED
MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAY OF BENGAL. DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN MAINLY CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 231227Z QUIKSCAT PASS
CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 10 KT UNFLAGGED WINDS
NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER, SYNOPTIC OBSERVATIONS OVER WESTERN SRI
LANKA REVEAL PRESSURE FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 2 MB IN 24 HOURS. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE 200 MB RIDGE AXIS IS OVER CENTRAL INDIA,
ALLOWING FOR LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR OVER THE DISTURBANCE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE CONTINUED
BROAD NATURE OF THE DISTURBANCE. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS
POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CHANGED LOCATION OF CONVECTION FROM
NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST QUADRANT IN PARA 1.B.(1).
FORECAST TEAM: DELTA//