Atlantic Tropical Outlook

The 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season will be remembered-for, rather, not remembered-for its below-average number of hurricanes. Despite a quick start to the season in 2013, with Tropical Storm Andrea forming in the e'rn Gulf of Mexico in early June, there were only two Atlantic hurricanes in 2013. Both occurred in mid-September and never strengthened beyond Category 1 strength.

On average, the North Atlantic basin sees 12 named tropical cyclones per year, with half of these systems reaching hurricane strength, and of those, about 3 tend to become major hurricanes. With the likelihood of El Nino developing during the early-mid summer of 2014, another below-average Atlantic hurricane season is expected. El Nino tends to result in increased wind shear across the Tropical Atlantic. This tends to prevent tropical waves from strengthening into tropical lows by spreading associated thunderstorms across a larger area.

Figure 1 shows that sea surface temperatures across the Gulf of Mexico are below average, likely due to numerous strong cold fronts that pushed through the Gulf during the month of May. This factor will tend to lower probabilities for the development of early-season tropical lows. Additionally, observed warming of equatorial waters across the central and Eastern Pacific is approaching El Nino thresholds, and guidance suggests that warming will continue through the summer, peaking in strength during the August, September, October timeframe.


WRI predicts a below-average to near-average Atlantic hurricane season primarily due to the aforementioned effects of El Nino. During the months of June and July, WRI will monitor stalled frontal boundaries across the western Atlantic and Caribbean to be the main focus for tropical development. Into August and September, tropical waves moving w'ward offshore Africa will be monitored for so-called "Cape Verde" type tropical low development. It should be noted that in previous El Nino hurricane seasons such as 1997, tropical waves developed into tropical cyclones at a significantly below-average rate.

East Pacific Tropical Outlook

Hurricane Amanda kicked off the 2014 East Pacific Hurricane season with a vengeance, peaking in strength as a Category 4 storm. WRI forecasts a near-to above normal East Pacific Hurricane season, primarily due to the development of El Nino this summer. Figure 1 shows anomalously warm sea surface temperatures along the coast of Mexico. This, along with reduced wind shear across the Eastern Pacific basin due to El Nino, will tend to result in favorable environmental conditions for the development of tropical lows throughout the 2014 season.

WRI Services

WRI offers many invaluable tools to protect your fleet with safe, efficient transits during tropical season. Our daily tropical summaries keep you informed of potential tropical development up to 7-days in the future. Our tropical and heavy weather monitoring system will alert you to any specific vessels that are threatened by WRI's classified "Tropical Lows" and/or any "officially" classified systems.

SeaWeaher's Tropical Tracker and Voyage Planner at www.SeaWeather.net provide worldwide tropical data that you can use to stay informed on all active and potential tropical systems, with your ships' positions plotted on the maps for easy reference. Tropical Tracker includes the following data:

• Storm track, "threat cone", wind radii, wind speed probabilities and a detailed discussion
• Track/speed/discussion of WRI's classified "Tropical Lows"
• Worldwide tropical discussion and outlook
• Surface pressure analysis, surface observations, radar, and satellite data
• High-resolution forecast wind/sea data
• Global computer model forecast storm tracks
• Land/Marine advisories
• Distance from tropical system to potential threatened ports
• Ability to pan/zoom map to any level for higher resolution

For any sensitive weather or routing situations, WRI recommends receiving detailed route/weather advisories direct from our team of experienced marine meteorologists. The advisories keep the vessel well aware of upcoming conditions, and ensure travel along the safest and most efficient route.

Although below-average tropical activity is expected across the Atlantic basin, it only takes one system to significantly impact a location, or route in the West Atlantic and East Pacific ports. WRI's innovative tools and detailed advisories can provide advanced notice for the early warning required to make informed decisions for a safe and efficient tropical season. Contact WRI today to discuss how our services can be customized for your upcoming trip!