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Climate Change and Shipping
Keith Wagner, Director of Operations
While frequent debates occur over the causes of climate change, the reality of a changing climate over the past 50-70 years cannot be disputed.
Across the globe, data shows increasing average temperatures.
Average global surface temperature has increased 1.14 degrees Celsius since the late 19th century, with increased frequency of extreme temperatures.
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Figure 1: Global average temperature and temperature anomalies (⁰C) from 1980-2016 (data courtesy NOAA/NCDC and NASA/JPL-Caltech)
From a meteorological and oceanographic perspective, there have been other "signs" of changing weather patterns and warming oceans:
Another aspect to consider is the reliability of computer programs to accurately predict conditions during these changing times.
The various models and programs were developed based on climatological "normals". Most onboard vessel routing programs only use one computer weather model,
and it is known that each model has “biases” in certain parts of the world. As weather patterns change significantly, it is expected that these biases in models will become more pronounced,
and it is still unknown how well they will accurately handle rapidly changing conditions. An experienced meteorologist will become even more necessary to interpret the various models,
and to provide real-time insights that models cannot provide.
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Figure 6: Evolution of GFS computer model prediction of a bomb cyclone off the North Carolina Coast on four consecutive days,
showing a weak system well offshore four days out, but a strong storm near the coast 1-2 days out.
With the expectation of increasing meteorological and oceanographic phenomena impacting the shipping industry,
it is more important than ever to have a weather routing company with experienced marine meteorologists monitoring your fleet.
Weather Routing Inc. (WRI) has been assisting our clients for 60 years to achieve safe and cost-effective transits.
Our optimum routing services ensure that your vessels are on the safest and most efficient transit possible,
while port forecasts keep you advised of upcoming conditions at any port location around the world.
Daily tropical summaries are provided to keep you informed of any tropical activity that may impact your operations.
Finally, our Dolphin Website and Dolphin OnBoard system allow you to view the latest weather information and forecasts for your transits.
Our team will be here to guide you through the changing waters ahead!
We encourage you to contact us at wri@wriwx.com or visit wriwx.com to learn about how we can assist your operations.
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ECA Cost Analysis
By: Josh May, Meteorologist
Emission Control Areas (ECA's) continue to be a significant factor in operational costs when vessels are transiting through these areas.
The fuel types and their prices can therefore be a crucial component when evaluating the optimum routes through these areas,
with an analysis of weather and currents likewise playing a role to keep costs to a minimum.
Minimizing the total voyage distance is not always the most cost effective solution.
When evaluating and comparing routing options, a shorter route through an ECA can often be the cheaper solution, though there are certainly scenarios where the opposite is true.
To help with this decision-making process, WRI provides operators with an ECA cost analysis prior to a vessel's departure.
The operator can provide their bunker prices and daily hire rate to WRI, with our report then providing an itemized breakdown of IFO,
MGO and total costs with respect to the estimated voyage duration and distances. An example of this report is shown below:
In the above example, the overall longer routing option cuts out about 240nm of ECA distance.
While this would result in a later arrival, it is the overall more cost-effective option given the significant difference in MGO cost versus IFO cost.
The above report can be provided on demand and can be a helpful tool for determining the best routing options.
This promotes good communication with operators and helps to ensure that we are recommending the optimal, cost-effective routing option.
WRI meteorologists are available 24/7/365 to assist with advanced planning with the goal of optimizing costs while always maintaining safe and efficient routing.
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