Join Weather Routing at the Newport International Boat Show
Kyle Petroziello, Senior Meteorologist

Do you plan on attending the Newport International Boat Show in Rhode Island from September 12-15? Be sure to stop by as we will again be located at Corner Booth #41, Tent A! Senior Meteorologists Amanda Delaney and Kyle Petroziello will be staffing the booth. We will be detailing our customized forecasting services offered, as well as, the ample features available through our supplemental weather website and app, SeaWeather. Our booth will present branded giveaway items as well. If you plan on attending the show, please email us at wri@wriwx.com as we are happy to provide guest tickets for those interested, though these will be in limited supply. We look forward to meeting with all current and future clients.

WRI Booth at Newport International Boat Show 2023

The Unexpected Slump of the Atlantic Hurricane Season
Max Gallo, Meteorologist

The 2024 North Atlantic hurricane season got off to a quick jump in late June with the formation of Alberto, Beryl, and Chris. Meteorologists across the field were in strong agreement that this season would be above average and quite active, and Beryl did not disappoint, shattering records for its strength and early season cyclogenesis. This activity came to a quick halt following Beryl's dissipation in early July. During July, meteorologists have been fascinated by the lack of activity across the basin, with errant tropical waves even becoming hard to find. There are several factors that we are certain have inhibited development during the period.

The factor which has garnered the most attention is the sizeable plume of Saharan dust which has become situated over the Northern Atlantic tropical basin. Saharan dust is certainly not unheard of in the region, and is probably more common than people realize. It fluctuates in intensity of the plume, but dust is brought westward as thunderstorms (sometimes tropical waves) move off the West Africa coast. This dust is pushed over the Atlantic basin, and if it is strong enough, can reach as far the Gulf of Mexico. This can affect a hurricane, or its environment to form, in a variety of different ways. A direct main effect is considered to be hot and thick layer of dust that suppresses more moisture from the basin, another key ingredient for tropical development.

The current surge of Saharan dust has been classified by meteorologists as the strongest in the past two hurricane seasons. This brings us to a comparison between our current hurricane season status and past seasons. The last time the basin saw such plentiful dust was 2021. After a flurry of activty to begin, the 2021 season saw an eerily similar lull in activty between early July and mid-August, a timeline that is on track to be almost exact to this year's season. The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season was the third most active in basin history at the time, mostly thanks to a very active second half of August and September, which saw a named system prevalent in the Atlantic on everyday of the month.

Pictured here is a prime example of a vast Saharan dust plume making its way westward from Africa in June of 2020. (NOAA)

 

Another factor that potentially inhibited tropical development is the supression of the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which has been slow to shift as far north as expected. The ITCZ is basically where southeasterly and northeasterly trade winds meet, which forces air to rise, a main ingredient in the genesis of thunderstorms. The ITCZ fluctuates seasonally near the equator, and makes the jog northward into the northern Atlantic for the yearly hurricane season. This shift only begins to occur in June typically, one of the main reasons the first month of the season is so quiet. The ITCZ is further south than its typical mean location at this point in the season, further contributing to the lack of activity.

One last factor, more so an absent ingredient, is the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This is an alternating oscillation of pockets of moist and dry air that travel eastward across the globe along the equator. One typical rotation around the globe takes anywhere between 30 and 60 days. When a dry portion of the MJO is over the Atlantic hurricane basin, an already unfavorable environment becomes even less likely for tropical development. Just like the aforementioned factors, this pocket of dryer air over the region will only last for so long.

These contributing factors combined with each can certainly explain why there was not so much as a Tropical Depression that developed until Debby in early August. Saharan dust supressing moisture, a supressed ITCZ to the south allowing wind shear to substantially increase, and a dry pocket within the MJO have all resulted in a basin that was starved of tropical activity through most of July. As these features come into more favorable alignment for tropical development, activity will continue to grow in the basin.  An uptick has already been seen quite recently, with the formation of Debby and its impacts across the Southeast U.S. fresh in our minds. Hurricane experts have not waned from the pre-season prediction of a highly active year, and remaining prepared at all times is your best course of action as we approach the heart of hurricane season.