Record Cold Temperatures in Central Florida
Jared Young, Senior Meteorologist

While the forecasters at Weather Routing Inc. are no stranger to plummeting temperatures in Upstate New York during the winter months, many of our clients who are down in Florida just felt record-breaking low temperatures in early February across the Peninsula. Much of central Florida was under an extreme cold warning, and archives show that an event this widespread has not occurred since December of 2010. This arctic air mass even resulted in snow flurries which reached as far south as Tampa Bay and Naples. Cold air moving across the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream resulted in instability and localized flurries in W’rn Florida, similar to the lake effect snow that New York frequently receives in the Northeast. These reached even as far south as Tampa Bay and Naples (though snowflakes melted quickly on impact).

 

Record breaking low temperatures were reached in several places along E’rn Florida as well, with records even broken in back to back days in Melbourne:

 

 

Figure 1: Record breaking low temperatures across central Florida between February 01st and 02nd.

 

What Exactly Caused this Outbreak?

 

Record low temperatures were reached in Florida during the first week in February thanks to an abnormal dip in the polar jet stream, caused by an expansion in the polar vortex across the Arctic latitudes. When the polar jet stream is disturbed and shifts to the south, arctic air masses from the North Pole are able to push S’ward towards southern latitudes. We often see this phenomenon across portions of the Northern United States, however this disturbance in the jet stream was quite notable. This resulted in colder temperatures which stretched as far south as Florida.

 

Potential Impacts to the Western Atlantic Tropics?

 

Figure 2: Current sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the Western Atlantic. Image courtesy of TropicalTidbits.com

 

In the wake of these colder air masses, the Gulf of Mexico has now cooled considerably. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are currently between 2-3 degrees Celsius lower than typical SSTs for the Northern Gulf of Mexico and Florida Straits. As we approach the spring months for the Northern Hemisphere, the current state of the Gulf of Mexico is currently rather unfavorable for the production of any early season tropical systems. In order for notable tropical development to occur with a disturbance, sea surface temperatures must reach at least 26.5 degrees Celsius (roughly 80 degrees Fahrenheit) in reasonable depths across a body of water. As shown in Figure 2, much of the Gulf of Mexico is below this threshold at present. This could lead to a slower start to the Western Atlantic Hurricane season, and another quieter season for the Gulf of Mexico as a whole with activity typically shifting east across the Atlantic with time throughout the season. We will of course be monitoring this closely in the weeks and months ahead.

Discounted Trans-Ocean Forecast Packages
Kyle Petroziello, Senior Meteorologist

Trans-Atlantic crossing season is soon upon us over the coming months as we look forward to warmer weather and opportunities across the pond. To aid your passage planning, Weather Routing offers discounted Trans-Ocean Forecast Packages, to be purchased as a prepaid bundle of 12 or 18 forecasts ready to be utilized at any frequency you wish.

These remain on your account with no expiration, available to be used for any future trips as well if not fully redeemed. Package forecasts can be used throughout the year, even if not being used for a crossing. WRI is confident these will efficiently suit your forecast needs this season. To learn more about these packages, you can email us or inquire about them when you set up forecasts for your crossing. We look forward to assisting!